Not A Lock
Upcoming covered games, next 7 days. Times in Detroit time.
Loading…
Upcoming covered games, next 7 days. Times in Detroit time.
Loading…
| Kickoff | Matchup | Spread | Total | Moneyline | Model (fair line) | Odds age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM EDT | Eagles @ Jaguars | PHI +7.5 (-112) best: PHI +7.5 (-110) FD anywhere: PHI +8 (-115) BETUS JAX -7.5 (-108) best: JAX -7.5 (-110) FD | o41.5 (-112) best: o41.5 (-115) FD u41.5 (-108) best: u41.5 (-105) FD anywhere: u42 (-110) BOV | PHI +310 best: PHI +320 FD JAX -395 best: JAX -405 FD anywhere: JAX -370 BETUS | Anchored: PHI -0.2 · Market: +7.5 FD · Δ 7.7 (model higher on PHI) raw PHI +9.8 · open -2.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: PHI +9.9 Total ours 44.5 · Mkt 41.5 · Δ 3.0 Win: PHI 52% · JAX 48% PASS JAX -7.5 (-110) · FD now -7.5 · anchored -7.9 · raw -9.8 · gap 0.43 · model edge -6.4% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.43 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 41.5 (-115) · model edge -1.9% (overstated) — edge -1.9% < 2% PASS PHI ML (+320) · model edge 4.2% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.43 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors JAX):
QBs: PHI Jalen Hurts (Active) · JAX Trevor Lawrence (no report) Weather: wind 4.1 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T14:46:50.275402+00:00) Games this season: PHI 4 · JAX 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open PHI -2.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 44.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Bears @ Packers | CHI -1.5 (-110) best: CHI -1.5 (-110) FD anywhere: CHI PK (-120) BETUS GB +1.5 (-110) best: GB +1.5 (-110) FD | o45.5 (-118) best: o45.5 (-110) FD u45.5 (-102) best: u45.5 (-110) FD | CHI -120 best: CHI -122 FD GB +100 best: GB +104 FD | Anchored: CHI +1.5 · Market: -1.5 FD · Δ 3.0 (model higher on GB) raw CHI -5.4 · open +3 · m2.1 · m2.0: CHI -5 Total ours 48.8 · Mkt 45.5 · Δ 3.3 Win: CHI 47% · GB 53% PASS CHI -1.5 (-110) · FD now +1.5 · anchored +2.2 · raw +5.4 · gap 0.72 · model edge 0.0% (overstated) — edge 0.0% < 2% PASS Under 45.5 (-110) · model edge -2.3% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.03 < 0.5 pts Lean CHI ML (-122) · model edge 3.5% (overstated) whyHome margin build (points, + favors GB):
QBs: CHI Tyson Bagent (Active) · GB Jordan Love (Active) Weather: wind 13.9 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:37.939618+00:00) Games this season: CHI 4 · GB 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open CHI +3 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 49.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | DK: 2h |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Bengals @ Dolphins | CIN -7 (-105) best: CIN -6.5 (-122) FD anywhere: CIN -6.5 (-110) MYB MIA +7 (-115) best: MIA +6.5 (+100) FD anywhere: MIA +7 (-115) MGM | o43.5 (-108) best: o43.5 (-105) FD anywhere: o42 (-114) LV u43.5 (-112) best: u43.5 (-115) FD | CIN -345 best: CIN -320 FD anywhere: CIN -310 BOV MIA +275 best: MIA +260 FD | Anchored: CIN -5.1 · Market: -6.5 FD · Δ 1.4 (model higher on MIA) raw CIN -3.4 · open -5.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: CIN -3 Total ours 47.8 · Mkt 43.5 · Δ 4.3 Win: CIN 67% · MIA 33% Lean MIA +6.5 (+100) · FD now +6.5 · anchored +5.9 · raw +3.4 · gap 0.57 · model edge 5.2% (overstated) · early: likely to move PASS Over 43.5 (-105) · model edge -0.9% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.12 < 0.5 pts PASS MIA ML (+260) · model edge 3.0% (overstated) — same view as the spread Lean (no double exposure) whyHome margin build (points, + favors MIA):
QBs: CIN Joe Burrow (Active) · MIA Malik Willis (Active) Weather: wind 11.6 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:38.888378+00:00) Games this season: CIN 4 · MIA 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open CIN -5.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 48.5 + 17.0%. | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Browns @ Jets | CLE +2.5 (-110) best: CLE +1.5 (-102) FD anywhere: CLE +2.5 (-105) LV NYJ -2.5 (-110) best: NYJ -1.5 (-120) FD anywhere: NYJ -1 (-125) BOL | o39.5 (-112) best: o39.5 (-115) FD anywhere: o39.5 (-105) BETUS u39.5 (-108) best: u39.5 (-105) FD anywhere: u40 (-110) MYB | CLE +114 best: CLE +114 FD NYJ -135 best: NYJ -134 FD | Anchored: CLE +1.3 · Market: +1.5 FD · Δ 0.2 (model higher on CLE) raw CLE +0.6 · open +1.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: CLE +0.8 Total ours 39.2 · Mkt 39.5 · Δ 0.3 Win: CLE 47% · NYJ 53% PASS CLE +1.5 (-102) · FD now -1.5 · anchored -1.3 · raw -0.6 · gap 0.16 · model edge -0.4% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.16 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 39.5 (-115) · model edge -1.8% (overstated) — edge -1.8% < 2% PASS CLE ML (+114) · model edge 0.6% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.16 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors NYJ):
QBs: CLE Deshaun Watson (Active) · NYJ Geno Smith (Active) Weather: wind 9.7 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:39.837740+00:00) Games this season: CLE 4 · NYJ 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open CLE +1.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 38.5 + 17.0%. | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Texans @ Titans | HOU -7.5 (-105) best: HOU -7.5 (-105) FD TEN +7.5 (-115) best: TEN +7.5 (-115) FD anywhere: TEN +8 (-113) BR | o38.5 (-105) best: o37.5 (-118) FD u38.5 (-115) best: u37.5 (-104) FD anywhere: u38 (-104) LV | HOU -425 best: HOU -390 FD anywhere: HOU -375 MGM TEN +330 best: TEN +310 FD anywhere: TEN +330 DK | Anchored: HOU -3.2 · Market: -7.5 FD · Δ 4.3 (model higher on TEN) raw HOU -1.9 · open -3.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: HOU -1.6 Total ours 43.4 · Mkt 37.5 · Δ 5.9 Win: HOU 61% · TEN 39% PASS TEN +7.5 (-115) · FD now +7.5 · anchored +6.5 · raw +1.9 · gap 1.04 · model edge 4.8% (overstated) — line moved on likely news (+3.5 → +7.5) PASS Over 37.5 (-118) · model edge -1.4% (overstated) — edge -1.4% < 2% PASS TEN ML (+310) · model edge 5.0% (overstated) — line moved on likely news (+3.5 → +7.5) whyHome margin build (points, + favors TEN):
QBs: HOU C.J. Stroud (no report) · TEN Cam Ward (Active) Weather: wind 7.6 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:38.413049+00:00) Games this season: HOU 4 · TEN 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open HOU -3.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 43.5 + 17.0%. | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Colts @ Steelers | IND +3 (-115) best: IND +2.5 (-110) FD anywhere: IND +3 (-120) BOV PIT -3 (-105) best: PIT -2.5 (-110) FD anywhere: PIT -1 (-129) BOL | o43.5 (-115) best: o44.5 (-104) FD anywhere: o44 (-102) LV u43.5 (-105) best: u44.5 (-118) FD | IND +124 best: IND +120 FD anywhere: IND +130 BOV PIT -148 best: PIT -142 FD | Anchored: IND +2.2 · Market: +2.5 FD · Δ 0.3 (model higher on IND) raw IND +0.7 · open +2.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: IND +1 Total ours 47.1 · Mkt 44.5 · Δ 2.6 Win: IND 45% · PIT 55% PASS IND +2.5 (-110) · FD now -2.5 · anchored -2.2 · raw -0.7 · gap 0.34 · model edge -2.0% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.34 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 44.5 (-104) · model edge -0.6% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.13 < 0.5 pts PASS IND ML (+120) · model edge -0.7% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.34 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors PIT):
QBs: IND Daniel Jones (Active) · PIT Aaron Rodgers (Active) Weather: wind 7.8 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:40.310372+00:00) Games this season: IND 4 · PIT 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open IND +2.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 47.5 + 17.0%. | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Raiders @ Patriots | LV +3.5 (-110) best: LV +3.5 (-105) FD NE -3.5 (-110) best: NE -3.5 (-115) FD | o45.5 (-105) best: o44.5 (-118) FD u45.5 (-115) best: u44.5 (-104) FD anywhere: u45.5 (-115) DK | LV +164 best: LV +164 FD NE -198 best: NE -196 FD anywhere: NE -183 BOL | Anchored: LV +7.5 · Market: +3.5 FD · Δ 4.0 (model higher on NE) raw LV +3.3 · open +8.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: LV +2.4 Total ours 44.2 · Mkt 44.5 · Δ 0.3 Win: LV 29% · NE 71% PASS LV +3.5 (-105) · FD now -3.5 · anchored -3.5 · raw -3.3 · gap 0.03 · model edge 2.5% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.03 < 0.5 pts PASS Under 44.5 (-104) · model edge -0.1% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.28 < 0.5 pts PASS LV ML (+164) · model edge 2.8% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.03 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors NE):
QBs: LV Kirk Cousins (Active) · NE Drake Maye (Active) Weather: wind 9.4 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:39.361835+00:00) Games this season: LV 4 · NE 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open LV +8.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 44.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Vikings @ Saints | MIN -2.5 (-110) best: MIN -1.5 (-120) FD anywhere: MIN -1 (-125) BETUS NO +2.5 (-110) best: NO +1.5 (-102) FD anywhere: NO +2.5 (-107) LV | o41.5 (-112) best: o42.5 (-104) FD anywhere: o41.5 (-108) MGM u41.5 (-108) best: u42.5 (-118) FD | MIN -142 best: MIN -134 FD NO +120 best: NO +116 FD | Anchored: MIN -2 · Market: -1.5 FD · Δ 0.5 (model higher on MIN) raw MIN -4.5 · open -1.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: MIN -4 Total ours 44.6 · Mkt 42.5 · Δ 2.1 Win: MIN 58% · NO 42% PASS MIN -1.5 (-120) · FD now +1.5 · anchored +2 · raw +4.5 · gap 0.55 · model edge -2.6% (overstated) — edge -2.6% < 2% PASS Over 42.5 (-104) · model edge 0.3% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.44 < 0.5 pts PASS MIN ML (-134) · model edge 0.7% (overstated) — edge 0.7% < 2% whyHome margin build (points, + favors NO):
QBs: MIN Kyler Murray (Active) · NO Tyler Shough (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: MIN 4 · NO 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open MIN -1.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 44.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT | Giants @ Commanders | NYG +4.5 (-115) best: NYG +3.5 (-102) FD anywhere: NYG +4 (-105) LV WSH -4.5 (-105) best: WSH -3.5 (-120) FD | o41.5 (-115) best: o42.5 (-105) FD anywhere: o41.5 (-110) MGM u41.5 (-105) best: u42.5 (-115) FD | NYG +160 best: NYG +166 FD WSH -192 best: WSH -198 FD | Anchored: NYG +2 · Market: +3.5 FD · Δ 1.5 (model higher on NYG) raw NYG -0.3 · open +2.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: NYG +0.2 Total ours 48.0 · Mkt 42.5 · Δ 5.5 Win: NYG 45% · WSH 55% PASS NYG +3.5 (-102) · FD now -3.5 · anchored -2.8 · raw +0.3 · gap 0.70 · model edge 5.1% (overstated) — line moved on likely news (crossed 3: -2.5 → -3.5) PASS Over 42.5 (-105) · model edge 0.2% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.47 < 0.5 pts PASS NYG ML (+166) · model edge 5.1% (overstated) — line moved on likely news (crossed 3: -2.5 → -3.5) whyHome margin build (points, + favors WSH):
QBs: NYG Jameis Winston (Active) · WSH Athan Kaliakmanis (no report) Weather: wind 9.4 mph (open-meteo forecast fetched 2026-10-09T19:06:40.782283+00:00) Games this season: NYG 4 · WSH 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open NYG +2.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 48.5 + 17.0%. | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM EDT | Broncos @ Chargers | DEN -3.5 (-102) best: DEN -3.5 (-104) FD anywhere: DEN -3 (-120) MYB LAC +3.5 (-118) best: LAC +3.5 (-118) FD | o41.5 (-115) best: o42.5 (-106) FD anywhere: o41.5 (-115) DK u41.5 (-105) best: u42.5 (-114) FD | DEN -180 best: DEN -180 FD LAC +150 best: LAC +152 FD | Anchored: DEN +1.8 · Market: -3.5 FD · Δ 5.3 (model higher on LAC) raw DEN -1.3 · open +2.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: DEN -1.3 Total ours 44.5 · Mkt 42.5 · Δ 2.0 Win: DEN 46% · LAC 54% PASS LAC +3.5 (-118) · FD now +3.5 · anchored +3.1 · raw +1.3 · gap 0.41 · model edge 0.7% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.41 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 42.5 (-106) · model edge -0.4% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.36 < 0.5 pts PASS LAC ML (+152) · model edge -0.8% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.41 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors LAC):
QBs: DEN Bo Nix (Active) · LAC Justin Herbert (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: DEN 4 · LAC 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open DEN +2.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 44.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDT | Lions @ Cardinals | DET -5.5 (-110) best: DET -5.5 (-104) FD ARI +5.5 (-110) best: ARI +5.5 (-118) FD anywhere: ARI +5.5 (-103) LV | o54.5 (-115) best: o54.5 (-108) FD anywhere: o54 (-112) BR u54.5 (-105) best: u54.5 (-112) FD | DET -258 best: DET -230 FD ARI +210 best: ARI +190 FD anywhere: ARI +215 BETUS | Anchored: DET -7 · Market: -5.5 FD · Δ 1.5 (model higher on DET) raw DET -0.5 · open -8.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: DET -1.4 Total ours 50.2 · Mkt 54.5 · Δ 4.3 Win: DET 72% · ARI 28% PASS ARI +5.5 (-118) · FD now +5.5 · anchored +4.6 · raw +0.5 · gap 0.92 · model edge 1.3% (overstated) — edge 1.3% < 2% PASS Under 54.5 (-112) · model edge -2.3% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.16 < 0.5 pts PASS ARI ML (+190) · model edge 0.0% (overstated) — edge 0.0% < 2% whyHome margin build (points, + favors ARI):
QBs: DET Jared Goff (Active) · ARI Jacoby Brissett (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: DET 4 · ARI 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open DET -8.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 49.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDT | 49ers @ Seahawks | SF +3 (-110) best: SF +3 (-104) FD anywhere: SF +3.5 (-115) BETUS SEA -3 (-110) best: SEA -3 (-118) FD | o45.5 (-115) best: o46.5 (-105) FD anywhere: o45.5 (-115) DK u45.5 (-105) best: u46.5 (-115) FD | SF +136 best: SF +146 FD SEA -162 best: SEA -174 FD anywhere: SEA -160 MYB | Anchored: SF +3.1 · Market: +3 FD · Δ 0.1 (model higher on SEA) raw SF +1.6 · open +3.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: SF +1.8 Total ours 47.0 · Mkt 46.5 · Δ 0.5 Win: SF 42% · SEA 58% PASS SF +3 (-104) · FD now -3 · anchored -2.7 · raw -1.6 · gap 0.26 · model edge 1.5% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.26 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 46.5 (-105) · model edge 0.3% (overstated) — edge 0.3% < 2% PASS SF ML (+146) · model edge 2.3% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.26 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors SEA):
QBs: SF Brock Purdy (Active) · SEA Sam Darnold (no report) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: SF 4 · SEA 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open SF +3.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 46.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM EDT | Ravens @ Falcons | BAL +3.5 (-118) best: BAL +3.5 (-122) FD ATL -3.5 (-102) best: ATL -3.5 (+100) FD anywhere: ATL -3 (-118) MGM | o43.5 (-115) best: o43.5 (-114) FD u43.5 (-105) best: u43.5 (-106) FD anywhere: u44 (-120) MGM | BAL +145 best: BAL +144 FD ATL -175 best: ATL -172 FD | Anchored: BAL -2.9 · Market: +3.5 FD · Δ 6.4 (model higher on BAL) raw BAL +4 · open -4.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: BAL +4.1 Total ours 48.0 · Mkt 43.5 · Δ 4.5 Win: BAL 61% · ATL 39% PASS ATL -3.5 (+100) · FD now -3.5 · anchored -3.6 · raw -4 · gap 0.10 · model edge -3.4% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.10 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 43.5 (-114) · model edge -2.2% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.35 < 0.5 pts PASS BAL ML (+144) · model edge -0.7% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.10 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors ATL):
QBs: BAL Lamar Jackson (Out) · ATL Michael Penix Jr. (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: BAL 4 · ATL 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open BAL -4.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 48.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 3:06 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM EDT | Bills @ Rams | BUF +3 (+100) best: BUF +3.5 (-118) FD LAR -3 (-120) best: LAR -3.5 (-104) FD anywhere: LAR -3 (-115) LV | o54.5 (-118) best: o54.5 (-110) FD anywhere: o54 (-110) BOV u54.5 (-102) best: u54.5 (-110) FD | BUF +145 best: BUF +148 FD LAR -175 best: LAR -176 FD | Anchored: BUF +2.9 · Market: +3.5 FD · Δ 0.6 (model higher on BUF) raw BUF +2.4 · open +3 · m2.1 · m2.0: BUF +1.5 Total ours 53.2 · Mkt 54.5 · Δ 1.3 Win: BUF 42% · LAR 58% PASS BUF +3.5 (-118) · FD now -3.5 · anchored -3.3 · raw -2.4 · gap 0.21 · model edge 0.1% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.21 < 0.5 pts PASS Under 54.5 (-110) · model edge -0.8% (overstated) — edge -0.8% < 2% PASS BUF ML (+148) · model edge 0.9% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.21 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors LAR):
QBs: BUF Josh Allen (Active) · LAR Matthew Stafford (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: BUF 4 · LAR 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open BUF +3 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 53.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 | |
| Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDT | Seahawks @ Broncos | SEA -1.5 (-110) best: SEA -2.5 (-110) FD anywhere: SEA -1.5 (-110) DK DEN +1.5 (-110) best: DEN +2.5 (-110) FD | o42.5 (-110) best: o42.5 (-105) FD anywhere: o42 (-107) LV u42.5 (-110) best: u42.5 (-115) FD | SEA -125 best: SEA -138 FD anywhere: SEA -125 DK DEN +105 best: DEN +118 FD | Anchored: SEA -2.5 · Market: -2.5 FD · Δ 0.0 raw SEA -2.8 · open -2.5 · m2.1 · m2.0: SEA -2.8 Total ours 44.0 · Mkt 42.5 · Δ 1.5 Win: SEA 59% · DEN 41% PASS SEA -2.5 (-110) · FD now +2.5 · anchored +2.5 · raw +2.8 · gap 0.05 · model edge -1.7% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.05 < 0.5 pts PASS Over 42.5 (-105) · model edge 0.7% (overstated) — edge 0.7% < 2% PASS SEA ML (-138) · model edge 1.5% (overstated) — anchored gap 0.05 < 0.5 pts whyHome margin build (points, + favors DEN):
QBs: SEA Sam Darnold (no report) · DEN Bo Nix (Active) Weather: wind 0 mph (none / dome) Games this season: SEA 4 · DEN 4 (fewer games = rating leans more on the preseason prior) Market anchor: open SEA -2.5 (draftkings) + 18.5% of our raw disagreement (w fit on earlier seasons). Total: open 43.5 + 17.0%. Model m2.1 · ratings as of Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · predicted Fri, Oct 9, 2:24 PM EDT · margin SD 13.0 |
Top line in each cell: DraftKings via ESPN. best: best price at my books (FD) at the last Odds API snapshot. anywhere: another book beats mine by ≥0.5 pt or, at the same line, ≥10¢. TBD = kickoff time not announced. Away listed first. Model: our fair line vs FanDuel (DraftKings if FanDuel has none); Δ is the gap in points.
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (9) |
DK: 2h Books: 6h (7) |